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AI and Sports Betting

The Cheatsheets Models

How our models use AI to improve their predictions

  • What is the Cheat Sheet?
    The "Cheat Sheet" refers to the predictions and advanced analytics provided to help gamblers make their picks. Plenty of touts will tell you that they know how to pick winners with their own "system." Unlike those touts, we value statistics, proven results and transparency above all. For transparency all of our historical picks are made clearly available on our site. Further, we do not "pick winners," but build statistical algorithms to utilize advanced statistics and data science to beat the oddsmakers. Yes, the sportsbooks do not like us.
  • What value does the Cheat Sheet bring?
    The unfortunate reality is that most sports bettors lose or the sportsbooks wouldn't be in business. With the normal -110 odds for a spread bet, a bettor needs to win 52.4% of the time to break even. So if the average bettor loses money that means they are below 52.4%. We can presume a solid bettor could likely win about 53% of their bets. If over the span of an NFL season a solid bettor places 10 bets a week (including playoffs) they would go 116-104, netting a win of 2 units or $100 if they bet $50 a game. If one used the CheatSheet's predictions, which went 58% historically against the NFL spread one would go 127-93, a seemingly moderate differential. However, this would have net 19 units or $850 on $50 bets. The cheatsheet for the NFL only package is $125, leaving the bettor with $725 in profit! Don't even get us started on our MLB and Golf models that are up 26 and 12 units respectively, netting one over $1900 on $50 bets, well surpassing the Cheatsheet's Full Package annual price of $239. Further, the best strategies combine quantitative and qualitative factors. If one is able to correctly predict 53% against the spread, they could use the CheatSheet as a guide, to find games both they and the models like, possibly improving on the ChestSheet's predictions.
  • ​How does SportsBook CheatSheet make its predictions?
    At SportsBook CheatSheet, we have created and tested proprietary algorithms to predict the outcome of sporting events. These models incorporate a wide variety of inputs including basic statistics, advanced statistics, weather, location, time of year, past performance in comparable situations, and more. The algorithms allow us to strip past human bias to find patterns and efficiencies to beat the oddsmakers.
  • Should I listen solely to the algorithm or also use my personal expertise?
    All of the models on our site have either already been successful or, if created before the current season, have been back-tested to ensure that they would have a winning track record. Without these track records, we simply would not be posting these picks. When assessing how much of your own analysis to include, ask yourself two questions: How much about this matchup do I know? What is my track record in betting on this sport? The general recommendation for those confident in their knowledge and with a sound betting history to identify bets that both they and the algorithms find favorable, picking up on different edges that come to the same conclusion.
  • How much should I bet? What is a “unit”?
    The algorithms we provide are very good, but obviously not perfect. No individual bet is guaranteed. The models zero in on patterns and numbers that provide an edge, which, over the long run, are very likely to yield success. This is where bankroll and unit betting comes in. Whatever your bankroll (i.e. budget) is - $100, $5,000, or $500,000 - estimate how much you have to use in a specified timeframe (i.e. a month, year…). This allows you to easily break down your bets into “units.” Units are expressed as the dollar amount a gambler makes on an average bet. The most common unit of analysis is 1/100 or 1% of a bankroll. So, if I have a $1000 bankroll, each unit is generally $10. By making each bet 1% of my bankroll, I am ensuring that a bad bet, or even a bad run won’t do too much damage to my bankroll. You can also adjust your units up or down depending on how confident you are in a bet. Some aggressive professional bettors will regularly bet 3-5 units, but this is not something we typically recommend. It is more common for confident bets to be worth 2-3 units, and less confident bets a half-unit or less. Additionally, when betting Futures (i.e. Who will win the Super Bowl or the British Open), the odds will generally be much higher and there are also many more bet choices than when picking a winner in an individual game. Therefore, one might want to place a larger amount of bets, and in this case they should lower their average bet size to proportionately reflect their standard unit bet. We recommend when placing more than a few futures bets at once (ex. 10 players to place in a golf tournament), lowering a bet to about 1/5 of a unit.
  • To parlay or not parlay?
    One of the most exciting parts of sports betting is placing a large parlay. However, parlays tend to be fool’s gold. They have the single worst return profile of any bet at a casino. So should you never bet on a parlay? That depends on your goal. If you are trying to grow your bankroll and profit, then likely it is in your best interest to avoid parlays. Adding the different “legs” of the parlay together will generally decrease the expected return. However, if your goal is largely entertainment, placing a parlay bet and rooting for a chance to win big can certainly add to the excitement of sports betting. Our recommendation for those wanting to bet parlays as entertainment is twofold: 1) Make this a relatively small portion of your bets, and 2) Bet smaller units – even down to 1/10 of a unit - on parlays with larger odds.
  • How do we rate our bet reccomendations?
    On SportsBook CheatSheet, we label our bets "Best Bets", "Great Bets", "Good Bets" and "No Bet". A "No Bet" label means either it is a bad bet, or essentially a 50-50 toss up without any clear value. A Good Bet will usually have an expected profit of roughly 5-15% and signifies there is value in the bet, albeit limited. A Great Bet is in between a Standard Bet and a Best Bet and will usually have an expected profit of roughly 15-20%. "Best Bets" are generally reserved for less than 15% of our bet recommendations and will usually have an expected profit of over 20%.
  • Will the CheatSheet be adding any more sports?
    Yes! We are in development of Tennis algorithm! Following this we plan to work on English Premier League and NHL algorithms! We only present algorithms that have been back tested and proven successful, therefore we can not guarantee any specific algorithm until we have built and tested it. However, we are confident in our abilities to keep adding models to the site! One advantage of signing up now is you will get the current price for the remainder of your subscription, regardless of algorithms added!
  • What is the spread?
    The spread is the amount of points a favorite needs to win by in order to win their side of a bet. Inversely, the spread can also refer to the amount of points an underdog can afford to lose by, while still winning the bet. Because many sporting events have a clear favorite, a 1:1 bet on them would offer odds too favorable to the bettor from the sportsbooks’ perspectives. So, sportsbooks use a spread to make it more difficult to discern which side of the bet is more likely to win.
  • What is the moneyline?
    Moneyline bets are bets solely on which team will win the game. Betting on the favorite in a moneyline bet will provide a smaller payoff than betting against the spread because they are presumed more likely to win.
  • What do the different odds mean?
    Sportsbooks commonly use numbers such as -110, 250, and 4000. These signify the payout rate per $100 wager. If the odds are a positive number, a winning wager will receive that amount per $100 wagered. For example, if the odds of the Knicks beating the Celtics are +230, a $100 winning wager on the Knicks will result in getting back the $100 principle, plus $230 in profit. If the number is negative, the bettor receives the profit of 100 divided by the odds number. For example, a winning a bet on the Celtics to beat the Knicks at -200 odds, would result in getting back the $100, plus 100/200, or $50 in profit.
  • What is the “vig”?
    The “Vig” refers to the amount that the sportsbook sets aside for itself regardless of which team wins. The typical 50-50 bet has a vig of -110, meaning that a $100 winning bet would have a profit of 100/110, or about $90.
  • What is a parlay?
    A parlay is a wager on more than one outcome, with each outcome counting as its own “leg.” To win, a bettor needs to correctly predict the outcome of each leg in the parlay. For example, instead of individually betting on the Heat to beat the Warriors and the Rams to beat the Giants, a bettor in a parlay would bet on both the Heat and Rams to win in their games. Since winning the parlay requires winning all the legs, the payouts are generally bigger than betting on each leg individually.
  • What is a teaser?
    A teaser is a popular type of parlay in which each outcome one bets on is made more likely to occur. Each leg is easier to win because the bettor is“given” points. For example, rather than a four point favorite needing to win by 4, in a six point teaser, this same team can lose by up to 2 while the bettor still wins. These points are given in return for a smaller payout for a succesful wager.
  • What is a futures bet?
    A futures bet is a long term bet. Generally, futures are placed on the outcome of a season or tournament rather than an individual game.
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